China's Sovereign Debt: A Balance-Sheet Perspective
時間：2014-09-01
作者：張勛
SFI Working Paper Series
No. SFIWP0036 2014-09-01
China's Sovereign Debt: A Balance-Sheet Perspective
Jianguo Xu a and Xun Zhang[1]
Abstract：We analyze China’s sovereign debt by constructing balance sheets for China’s government and public sector. We find China’s government debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than that of most large developed economies. We also find the debt-to-asset ratio of China’s government and public sector significantly lower than its own historical height (1998-2002). Local government debt is mainly to finance infrastructure investments. Local government debt risk is amplified by two mismatches. The first is the income-expenditure mismatch between central and local governments. The second is the maturity mismatch of short-term debt and long-term infrastructure investments. The maturity mismatch may cause short-term repayment difficulties.
Keywords: Government Debt; Public Sector Balance Sheet; Maturity Mismatch; Capital Returns
JEL Classification：E01, E22, H63
[1] Jianguo Xu，China Center for Economic Research (CCER), National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, China, 100871.
Xun Zhang，China Center for Economic Research (CCER), National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, China, 100871，Shanghai Finance Institute, Shanghai, China, 200002.
